ESSENDON legend Matthew Lloyd says Carlton has completed the cycle from pauper to prince and, for the first time in a decade, can be considered a legitimate premiership threat.
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Buoyed by two finals appearances last season, Blues coach Brett Ratten has raised expectations by guaranteeing his men will finish in the top four this year.
Champion full-forward Lloyd, who was still playing when the Blues slipped from a flag contender in 2001 to the depths of despair over the next six seasons, believes a more momentous result could unfold.
''We all know their midfield is good enough. It's that key forward spot,'' he said yesterday. ''Jarrad Waite has had injuries. If he can remain fit and be that target for them, it takes the pressure off [Eddie] Betts and [Jeff] Garlett to kick the goals for them. Aside from that, I think [Lachie] Henderson and [Michael] Jamison are good enough key defenders to win a flag.''
Lloyd said a fit Matthew Kreuzer, who struggled at times last season in his comeback from a knee reconstruction, would also be important, while the Blues would be spurred by their breakthrough win over Essendon in the opening week of the finals and painful demise against West Coast a week later.
''When you look at premiership teams, they are often those teams that have fallen short a year before and they have extra incentive,'' he said.
''Carlton, Hawthorn and Collingwood just fell short. Those three are to be the main challengers [to Geelong].''
Lloyd, who yesterday helped conduct a training session with AIS-AFL teenagers at Whitten Oval, expects the Cats to remain in flag contention, despite the retirements of Brad Ottens, Cameron Mooney, Darren Milburn and Cameron Ling.
''Brad Ottens is the one, he is a massive loss,'' he said.
But Lloyd said coach Chris Scott gave a chance last season to youngsters Daniel Menzel, Mitch Duncan and Allen Christensen ''and they just thrived on it''.
''I don't see any reason why they will fall off the cliff.''
But he said that could be dependent on whether veterans Matthew Scarlett, Paul Chapman and Steve Johnson were able to maintain stellar form.
Lloyd did not bracket the Bombers in his elite list, suggesting their aim would be to win at least one final in James Hird's second year in charge.
He said it was a big year for veteran ruckman David Hille, while he expects Michael Hurley to be used predominantly as a forward.
Lloyd has begun his third year as an assistant coach and mentor with the AIS program but suggested he was unlikely to progress into such a role with an AFL club.
