The Port Kembla gas import terminal could be up and running a year earlier than last forecast but households and gas-reliant businesses shouldn't expect any major relief on their power bills from the terminal anytime soon.
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Located Port Kembla's inner harbour, the $300 million gas import facility is part of Andrew 'Twiggy' Forrest's energy arm - Squadron Energy - and has been under construction since 2021.
Speaking to local media at the construction site on Thursday, recently appointed Squadron Energy CEO Rob Wheals said the terminal could be operational by mid 2025, a year earlier than forecast by AEMO, but the market conditions needed to be right.
"We could be ready by 2025 if that's what the market requires, and then obviously what we'll do in that case is make sure that the floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) is [ready]," he said.
In its latest forecast released in March, energy market regulator AEMO expects the import facility, which allows for liquefied natural gas to be shipped to Port Kembla in tankers, before being converted back into gas to be fed into the gas grid, to be operational from 2026.
This is expected to align with a shortfall in gas production in southern Australia, as gas fields in the Bass Strait reduce production.
In the short term, the ACCC has forecast a gas surplus for mid 2024, but warned the outlook beyond that was "uncertain".
"The storms in Victoria in February, which led to coal power station outages and increased demand for gas-powered generation, are an important reminder that demand forecasts can quickly change," ACCC chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb said.
The current 2026 date is much later than when the Port Kembla terminal was originally announced, with early indications the terminal could be up and running by late 2023.
However, these hopes were scuppered, both by practical and economic concerns. The outbreak of war in Ukraine delayed the delivery of the FSRU, essentially a floating factory which turns the liquid methane into gas, as the in-demand unit was required to support gas deliveries into Western Europe as Russian pipelines were cut off.
In addition, with gas markets already exceptionally volatile, most large customers were tied into long contracts, meaning the import terminal struggled to find a buyer - apart from itself.
"Conversations with all customers are ongoing," Mr Wheals said.
Currently, around 100 workers are on site, with the quay wall and dredging for the berthing bay finished and landside works including fire systems and the all-important connection to the gas main nearing completion.
But with businesses in the Illawarra reporting paying tens of thousands of dollars more for gas, Mr Wheals said prices needed to get to a certain level before it made economic sense to have the import terminal enter its final phase.
"This facility provides much needed gas to meet the market," Mr Wheals said.
"If you have a shortage of supplies, that's when you see higher prices, this facility will meet the demand to ensure that prices don't continue to escalate."