Coats and beanies may have been the first choice of apparel for many South Coast residents as a cool change swept across the region over the past few days.
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However, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) predicts a warmer and drier than average winter for New South Wales.
Winter rainfall is like to be below average for the state and eastern NSW is predicted to have a 70 to 80 per cent chance of below average rainfall according to BOM’s winter outlook.
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Rainfall data over May paints a dry picture in Kiama, Nowra and Ulladulla, supporting BOM’s view that southern mainland Australia has also had one of its driest autumns on record.
Kiama’s Brighton Street recorded 23mm during May, 8.4mm less than April.
Ulladulla’s area weather station recorded 35.8mm for the month and its highest was 24mm on May 12.
Nowra residents experienced a drier May than their nearby neighbours, recording 21.8mm over the month at the Ran area weather station.
Australia's main climate drivers, El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently in a neutral phase, meaning there is no strong shift in the outlook towards widespread wetter or drier conditions.
Bureau climatologist Jonathan Pollock said when ENSO and IOD are neutral, other climate drivers have a greater influence.
"We're expecting warmer than normal temperatures in the Tasman Sea this winter and associated lower-than-normal air pressure. This would mean a weakening of westerly winds over southern Australia that normally draw cold fronts up from the Southern Ocean," Mr Pollock said.
"As a result of this, we're expecting to see below average winter rainfalls for western parts of Western Australia and for most of New South Wales extending across the border into southern Queensland and northern Victoria. For most other parts the chances of above or below average rainfall is roughly equal."
