Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
London: The British Parliament will spend half of Wednesday debating – and likely approving – a bombing campaign against Islamic State in Syria, with air strikes expected to follow swiftly after.
But the debate could also trigger an existential crisis for Jeremy Corbyn's fractious, squabbling Labour opposition.
Barring a last-minute change of heart, Mr Corbyn will speak against military strikes but the man sitting next to him, shadow foreign minister Hilary Benn, will lay out the argument in favour.
Up to 50 Labour MPs are predicted to defy their leader's call to oppose air strikes – strikes that Mr Corbyn on Tuesday called "not a sensible or rational way forward".
During a two-hour shadow cabinet meeting on Monday, described afterwards as a "shouting match", Labour MPs forced Mr Corbyn to allow a vote free of the party whip. However, the powerful new grassroots "Momentum" group within Labour has threatened payback, even deselection for MPs who vote for war, on the basis that they are opposing official party policy.
British Labour is on the brink of disintegration, held back by the memory of the electoral disaster that followed its last split 34 years ago, political analyst Anthony Wells said.
This week it faces a "lovely double whammy", said Mr Wells, YouGov's research director: Wednesday's divisive vote on Syria, then Thursday's Oldham West byelection where the Labour vote is tipped to plummet, challenged by right-wing populists UKIP.
Labour doorknockers in the electorate have reported their usual voters are being turned off by Mr Corbyn's leadership and the party's internal feuding.
The parliamentary party is in open rebellion, briefing journalists daily with disparaging comments about Mr Corbyn and his allies.
They have sought legal advice on ways to force Mr Corbyn out of his job and block party members from returning him.
At least one Labour MP has started referring to party members as "the mob".
A former cabinet minister has called shadow minister Diane Abbott "deranged" for proposing a whip on the Syria vote – adding (in comments to a Times journalist) "How is it possible to say we are a party of government given the chaos we are in?"
Other shadow cabinet members accused Mr Corbyn of "deplorable" behaviour and a "lack of respect" after the meeting on Monday.
"If it carries on like this, the Labour Party will be completely finished as a serious party of principle," one Labour MP told the Times.
There has been open talk of a formal split in the party, which is now roughly divided between a radicalised left-wing base, who overwhelmingly chose Mr Corbyn as leader, and a centrist parliamentary party of MPs who value electability.
Labour MPs who vote for military action in Syria "may well prove to be the nucleus of a new party", speculated Robert Harris in the Sunday Times.
"If that sounds apocalyptic then so is the mood of many Labour MPs: obliged to watch at close quarters day in, day out, the incompetent antics of a leadership that has no hope of ever winning a general election but which is nonetheless impossible to dislodge."
Labour has split twice in the last century: in 1931 over public sector wage cuts, and in 1981 when Labour moderates formed the SDP, leaving a Labour Party that had shifted leftwards and committed to unilateral nuclear disarmament.
The parallels with 1981 are terrifying Labour MPs, Mr Wells said.
"I don't think [the party will formally split] – yet," he said. "A lot of the reason it hasn't got to that point is the memory of '81 – if you charge out of the party and form your own party you get annihilated by our [first past the post] electoral system.
"[The MPs] are thinking 'we did do that and it ended in tears'."
Both sides hate the other and want them to leave the party but "no-one wants to march out of the room first", Mr Wells said.
A new poll released Wednesday morning showed that 5 million Britons had turned against air strikes in the week since David Cameron set out his case for them.
However those in favour still strongly outnumber those against. Some 48 per cent support military action in Syria, down from 59 per cent the week before. And 31 per cent are opposed, up from 20 per cent.
"Jeremy Corbyn has taken a stand on an issue where the public is against him," Mr Wells said. "Labour Party members want one thing, Labour Party MPs and voters want another."
Thursday sees a byelection in Oldham West, the first electoral test under Mr Corbyn's leadership.
Labour has held Oldham West since 1970, with a comfortable 55 per cent of votes in the May election, a majority of 15,000. That lead is expected to be obliterated. In the absence of formal polling, betting shop Ladbrokes hasLabour as 1/4 favourite but UKIP very backable at 11/4.
If Labour survive, it will likely be due to a strong candidate, with credible local roots, who has run a near Corbyn-free campaign.
Mr Wells predicts that if Labour holds the seat, even with a vastly reduced majority, it will be water under the bridge – especially for a party where electoral success is now subordinate to "doing the right thing", Mr Wells said.
But if they lose it will chime with claims that Mr Corbyn's Labour is a party for inner-city leftists, not the traditional small-c conservative Labour vote in the north – who are likely to turn to UKIP.
And it will spark new anxiety among Labour MPs, half of whom guard slimmer majorities than Oldham West's.
However, Labour is not the only party divided over Syria.
Conservative MP John Baron may be among up to a dozen of his colleagues who either abstain or vote against the government's motion.
The British should "learn from our previous errors" – referring to the aftermath of the Iraq war, he said on Tuesday, adding that his "gut instinct" was that Conservatives should also be allowed a free vote on the issue.
House of Commons Speaker John Bercow said the government planned a full day's debate on Wednesday on the Syria motion – and if more MPs wanted to speak he'd be happy to "sit up all night".
Peers are also to hold a full debate on Wednesday on possible military action against IS in Syria.
