John Gorton, Australia's 19th prime minister, came to power in bizarre circumstances and departed in an equally bizarre fashion. A World War II fighter pilot, the so-called "larrikin PM" replaced Harold Holt after he disappeared at sea – making Gorton the first Prime Minister to sit in the Senate. Gorton's headstrong style alienated many of his colleagues and he struggled to combat a rising Gough Whitlam.

Gorton narrowly survived a leadership challenge from William "Billy" McMahon in 1969, but faced another crisis two years later when then-defence minister Malcolm Fraser resigned from cabinet, citing Gorton's "dangerous reluctance to consult" and his "obstinate determination to get his own way". Fraser's resignation triggered a confidence vote on Gorton's leadership which was tied 33-33. This result would have allowed Gorton to remain in power but he cast a deciding vote against himself, removing him from office.

The transition did not go smoothly. Rather than fade away, Gorton nominated for the deputy leadership and won. He was booted out of cabinet after five months for perceived disloyalty.

McMahon proved little match for Whitlam's transformative social agenda and the Coalition was ejected from office at the 1972 election.

VERDICT: Failure.

Hayden-Hawke 1982-83

Only two years after entering Parliament, former Australian Council of Trade Unions boss Bob Hawke challenged Bill Hayden for the Labor leadership. Although the "Silver bodgie" was more popular with the public, Hayden won the party room ballot 42 to 37 in July 1982.

But a poor result for Labor in a December 1982 by-election helped convinced party powerbrokers that only Hawke could win an election. Rather than face another ballot, Hayden resigned from the leadership and Hawke was elected unopposed as leader. Justifying the decision, Labor won power at the 1983 election for the first time since the Whitlam dismissal. Hayden and Hawke developed an effective working relationship, with Hayden serving as foreign affairs minister before Hawke appointed him governor-general.

VERDICT: Success

Keating-Hawke 1991

In 1988 Hawke and his treasurer Paul Keating made their famous "Kirribilli agreement". In the presence of witnesses, Hawke agreed that he would step aside for Keating after the 1990 election if he secured a fourth term as prime minister. But after Keating belittled Hawke's leadership to the Canberra press gallery, Hawke backed away from the pact. This prompted a furious Keating to retire to the backbench and challenge Hawke for the leadership. Keating was defeated 66 votes to 44 in June 1991 and vowed not to challenge again ("I only had one shot in the locker and I fired it," he famously said).

But Hawke's performance against John Hewson, who had unsteadied him with his bold "Fightback!" economic reform package, did not improve and Keating decided to challenge again. This time he won by 56 votes to 51. Hawke retired from politics and an energised Keating defeated Hewson at the "unwinnable" 1993 election.

VERDICT: Success

Turnbull-Abbott 2009

In late 2009, the Liberal Opposition was racked with disunity and was struggling to lay a blow against the popular Kevin Rudd. Malcolm Turnbull, who had deposed Brendan Nelson as leader the previous year, was committed to negotiating an emissions trading scheme with Labor – a position that infuriated the Liberal Party's conservative base and the Nationals.

Former Howard government minister Kevin Andrews launched a spill motion against Turnbull for the leadership. While no one expected him to win, Andrews won 35 votes to Turnbull's 48 – a sign that support for Turnbull was ebbing away. Abbott and several other shadow ministers retired from the frontbench in protest at Turnbull's continued support for a carbon price.

A day later, Abbott, running on an anti-ETS platform, challenged Turnbull's leadership. Joe Hockey also decided to challenge and, with polls showing him most popular with the public, was considered the favourite. But his decision to support a conscience vote on the ETS pleased neither the conservatives or moderates and he was eliminated in the first voting round. Abbott then defeated Turnbull by one vote: 42 to 41.

Despite predictions from commentators that he was "unelectable", Abbott proved a highly effective opposition leader and his campaign against pricing carbon resonated with the public. Abbott almost unseated Labor in 2010 after just one term in power; in 2013 he trounced them. After initially announcing his retirement from politics, Turnbull decided to stay on. As communications spokesman, then minister, he played a crucial role neutralising broadband as a political issue.

VERDICT: Success.

Rudd-Gillard 2010-13

After storming into office in 2007, Kevin Rudd found himself mired in political quicksand by the middle of 2010. He had abandoned his commitment to an ETS, was at war with the mining industry and asylum seeker boats were arriving with increasing frequency. Rudd had also isolated many of his colleagues with displays of rudeness, disorganisation and indecisiveness.

Julia Gillard, urged on by dismayed MPs, decided to challenge. She was frustrated by the government's political woes and angry at reports Rudd had doubted her loyalty. In the end, the stampede of support to Gillard was so overwhelming that Rudd retired from the leadership without a vote. But the public was surprised and confused by Rudd's speedy execution.

Instead of retiring as expected, Rudd stayed in politics and was accused of sabotaging Gillard's campaign through damaging leaks in the 2010 election campaign. Labor strategists believe the destabilisation contributed to Labor's loss of majority government.

Even strong Gillard supporters now admit removing Rudd was a mistake.

A return to cabinet as foreign minister did not sate Rudd's ambitions and he launched a leadership challenge in February 2012. Gillard won easily: 71 to 31.

By 2013, with Gillard wallowing in the polls, a desperate Labor party returned to Rudd. While he arguably limited Labor's losses, Labor ran an underwhelming campaign and lost power after only two terms.

VERDICT: 2010 Failure. 2013 Qualified success.

The lesson from history: Yes, leadership spills can cause chaos and dysfunction. But, if managed well, they can also pay off spectacularly. Much determines on how the vanquished leader responds. Do they retire gracefully or adapt to a new, lesser role? Or do they harbour resentment, plotting for a return to the leadership? History also shows that it often takes multiple challenges to unseat the leader. And that solemn vows from possible leaders to never challenge - or never challenge again - count for little when the numbers start swinging their way.

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