Speaking at Tuesday’s Kiama Mayor’s Breakfast for the Kiama and District Chamber of Commerce, using June 2014 NSW Department of Planning figures, IRIS Research executive director Simon Pomfret said by 2031 there will a 31.8 per cent drop in 20-24 year–olds and a 16.7 per cent drop in 25-29 year olds living in the area.

For the same period there will be a doubling in the 70-85-year-plus bracket.

From 2011-2031 there will be a 50 per cent increase in the number of lone-person households, a 41.5 per cent increase in couples only and there will be only a 13 per cent increase in family units comprised of couples with children.   

 “That 50 per cent increase in households that only have one person is a trend that is not only happening in this area but throughout Australia,’’ Mr Pomfret said.

“That is the fastest-growing family unit across the country, so that has impacts in terms of adaptations for business in what sort of needs those households have.

“The other statistic of interest is that of 'couples only' (41.5 per cent). I know at times we look at Kiama as having a retirement focus and certainly, that is shown in that number. So this is going to have an impact in the type of development we can expect in the Kiama area over the next 20 years.’’

Chamber member Garry Pinch said the loss of highly educated young people and job generators were concerning and asked what was being done in Kiama to arrest the situation. 

Kiama Mayor Brian Petschler flagged some of the planned sources of further employment but conceded development and job generation was an issue. 

"It is an issue we have struggled with over the years,'' he said. "Most people who come to this area essentially want to raise the drawbridge after them and not let anyone else come because it's a lovely place to live.

"We don't want to see it become a Blacktown-like suburb. So we have to balance all the time the development of the area, so that we retain the character.

"We have an urban strategy in place which has a couple of greenfield sites, which council is keen to see developed but hopefully retain the character at the same time.

In terms of employment, Cr Petschler cited the planned redevelopment of the Akuna Street, Kiama site as a retail site and the $58 million redevelopment of Kiama Hospital as an aged care centre and its associated aged care and service industries.

"Consultants are currently discussing the Akuna Street redevelopment with a major retail user. If that comes off and we link to the main street that will enhance an have a  knock-on effect in terms of economic development,'' he said.

"So we have a few irons in the fire.''

Kiama Chamber board member  town planner/architect Patrick Mahedy said he believed a change in thinking was needed.

“We don't have to follow the trends,'' Mr Mahedy said. "We can change the trends. We don't have to go and build retirement homes because the trends are telling us we are going to have an ageing population.

"We are also seeing a gap of our youth. What we should also be doing is building low-cost housing so that our youth can stay here and they will be the new entrepreneurs.''

According to the Department of Planning figures Kiama’s population is set to expand from nearly 21,000 in 2011 to 25,450 in 2031 living in 8100 and 10,550 households respectively.

Mr Pomfret said a predicted annual population increase of 1 per cent from 2011-2031 was higher than the state average and Wollongong, although not higher than Shellharbour.

Mr Pomfret said the targets might be set too high for the amount of land available for development

“Those targets might be a little bit hard to achieve in regard to the number of greenfield sites available in the Kiama area in terms of the developments that might be possible…,’’ he said

“They seem to be very optimistic for this area so, it will be interesting to see how that transpires.’’

Mr Pomfret said while the targets high in Kiama in terms of available land, he believed growth rates in the Illawarra needed to be higher than they had historically been but that the growth needed to be planned strategically.

'I know we like to protect what's in our backyard,'' he said. "I know the Kiama area is a great place and how do you continue to sustain the area without putting a lid on the growth....?

"From an economic perspective development is a good thing. On the residential side, I think it is very important to select the areas strategically. 

"Where we are going to target for that growth is critical - to create a population mass where we can start to say 'hey we're here, we have population of  400,000 and start lobbying government for infrastructure and support.''