Opinion

It's the deal she can't seal

THE empress has strutted forth in her new clothes, and the people have hissed and booed.

Not only do the people think Julia Gillard's new green packaging is threadbare, it turns out they like the empress even less than the clothing.

Today's Herald/Nielsen poll illustrates that Gillard's latest policy outing is not a political failure but a disaster. First, the announcement of the policy and its elaborate compensation arrangements did not win the Gillard government any votes. Labor's primary vote fell slightly to 26 per cent, the lowest for either of the main parties in the 39-year history of the poll. And Gillard's personal approval rating has worsened, sharply, to make her the most unpopular prime minister since Paul Keating.

Second, voters do not trust the government's plans to compensate them for the effect of the carbon tax. Two-thirds of households will be fully compensated or overcompensated, yet most people believe they will be worse off.

"This means they believe Tony Abbott, not Julia Gillard," says the Nielsen director John Stirton. The government's problem, in other words, is not what's being said but who is saying it.

Gillard is not the government's chief sales person. She is its chief credibility problem. Indeed, the carbon tax is better supported than the Prime Minister who is supposedly "selling" it - 39 per cent of respondents support the tax but only 26 per cent intend to vote Labor.

Who are the people who support the carbon tax but not Gillard's government? They are those who voted for the Greens at the last election. If Gillard were able to win them over, she'd be back in the game.

And that's the third devastating conclusion of the poll - 44 per cent of Greens voters think Gillard is mainly responsible for the carbon package, yet she does not appear to have won any extra Greens votes.

In other words, Gillard gets all the blame from those opposed to the tax but no new votes from those who support it.

This leads to the final verdict: most voters endorse Abbott's line that Gillard has exceeded her mandate and support an early election.

''The real test will be the implementation of the carbon tax in a year's time," says Stirton. But do Gillard's courtiers have the nerve to wait that long in support of a leader without followers?

Posted By: PETER HARTCHER on 18/07/2011 10:58:00 AM | Comments (8)

NATIONAL TIMES

Share on
Facebook

Tweet on
Twitter

Email to
a friend

comments

Date: Newest first | Oldest first

If labor want to have any chance of surviving the next election, they have to get rid of Ju-liar NOW. They got rid of Rudd and his approval rating was far higher the gilliards.

Posted by Jazzy, 18/07/2011 11:35:43 AM

Why is there nobody recognising the role that Bob Brown is playing in all of this "carbon tax" debacle?

What a shame she seems to be letting the females in Australia down. Our first female Prime Minister and she is allowing a male to pull the strings!

Would another election get rid of the Greens?

With Tony Abbot pulling the strings how are we going to be better off?

Unfortunately this country lacks good, strong leadership and there is no choice between any of them!

Posted by Observer, 18/07/2011 1:35:13 PM

Given the support of the Greens and the Independants, deposing Gillard as the Prime Minister would likely involve a great deal of risk from Labor's perspective, in view of comments to the effect of 'personal allegiance' to Gillard uttered to date by a number of members of these minority parties. I therefore expect the Labor machine to continue to fret over Labor's current poll standings, but not pull a move on replacing Gillard unless the Labor machine is convinced that Federally, Labor is in the same position where NSW Labor ended up, and that there is nothing to lose by replacing Gillard.

Posted by the Biily Hawk, 18/07/2011 1:36:47 PM

Whatever lies the labor party spin us - this article is in todays WALL STREET JOURNAL. The opening paragraph reads: Carbon cap and trade is dead in America, the Chicago emissions trading exchange has folded, and European nations keep fudging on their Kyoto Protocol promises. But Al Gore's great green hope still has a champion: Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard, who announced last week that her government will impose a cap-and-tax regime. READ FULL STORY

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304203304576447910279095574.html?mod=WSJASIA_hpp_sections_opinion

Posted by matilda, 18/07/2011 3:29:03 PM

Bring back Keating! Bring back Keating! Even he's better than Juliar!!

Posted by To Be or Not to Be?, 18/07/2011 6:59:42 PM

You have got to wonder why all of a sudden some very serious money is being placed on Simon Crean to takeover as PM. Unfortunately I did not pick him up when the price was at $65 and have had to settle for $9.50. It's very déjà vu what happened when Kevin got rolled.

Posted by JohnD, 19/07/2011 10:10:04 AM

This stupid greedy power hungry excuse for a woman is dividing australia destroying our unity,divide and conquer,all you under twenty kids bleating about how good the tax is wont be paying it mum and dad will.

Posted by tom, 20/07/2011 2:49:31 AM

you people above are dreaming...the majority are wrong on this one....typical australians wouldn't know a good opportunity until it passes them by....

Posted by tracy, 20/07/2011 2:25:57 PM

Here is the place for you to vent on any national or world news and lifestyle stories on the YourGuide websites. If there is anything you see or hear that you like or don't like, tell us. Don't keep it to yourself!